July 27, 2026
Section 122's 10 percent flat tariff expired by statute at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on July 24, 2026, exactly 150 days after it took effect. The U.S. Trade Representative's replacement action took effect at the same moment, so there was no window where the old rate simply lapsed. The new tariffs run under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, built on a forced-labor enforcement investigation covering 60 economies, about 99.4 percent of U.S. imports. That is broader than the 46-country proposal that had been circulating through July.
Vietnam lands in the 12.5 percent tier: a flat Section 301 add-on stacked on top of the existing 4 percent MFN base rate, for a combined rate of roughly 16.5 percent. That is close to the upper end of what our original estimate projected before the July 24 deadline, and it replaces the 10 percent Section 122 baseline outright rather than adding to it. Vietnam is not among the economies USTR identified as having adopted or committed to a forced-labor import prohibition, so it did not get one of the lower-tier carve-outs.
China's new Section 301 layer is also 12.5 percent, but it stacks on top of the existing 25 percent Section 301 tariff that has applied to Chinese goods since 2018, bringing the aggregate Section 301 rate on Chinese imports to 37.5 percent. Add the roughly 3 to 4 percent MFN base rate most plastic packaging HTS codes carry, and the combined duty on China-origin packaging now runs around 40 to 41 percent, up from the mid-30s percent figure that applied before July 24.
Before July 24, the China-to-Vietnam gap ran roughly 21 to 22 percentage points, 35-plus percent against 13 to 14 percent. After the Section 301 replacement, that gap sits closer to 24 to 25 points, roughly 40 percent against 16.5 percent. Vietnam's rate went up in absolute terms, but China's went up more, since the new 12.5 percent layer stacks on an already-higher base. The relative case for Vietnam sourcing did not weaken this month. It strengthened.
Section 122 was always temporary by law, capped at 150 days with no path for the President to extend it unilaterally, which is exactly why it expired on schedule. Section 301 carries no statutory rate cap and no expiration date. It is also a much harder tariff authority to challenge in court: it has been used for more than four decades, and the Supreme Court declined in June 2026 to review an appeals court decision upholding existing Section 301 tariffs against China. Litigation against this new action is likely, but importers should plan around these rates holding for the foreseeable future rather than expecting another 150-day sunset.
The math got worse for China-only production and better, in relative terms, for a Vietnam option, and it happened on a tariff authority that is built to last rather than one running out a legal clock. If your supplier is still quoting China-only tooling, ask what their landed cost looks like at a 37.5 percent Section 301 stack, not the pre-July numbers. For the underlying resin and process decisions that sit alongside a sourcing call like this, see PP vs. HDPE vs. PET: Choosing the Right Resin and Injection Molding vs. Blow Molding. For the numbers this update is built on, see China vs. Vietnam Tariffs: What It Actually Costs to Source Plastic Packaging in 2026.
Sources: Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, USTR Takes Action in Forced Labor Section 301 Investigations (July 23, 2026) and accompanying Fact Sheet; Supreme Court of the United States, docket No. 25-1012, HMTX Industries LLC v. United States (certiorari denied June 15, 2026).
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